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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|