🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still