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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.